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A Falcons and Bulldogs win. Neither really matters but both are refreshing.
1. Derek Lowe will be shopped once John Lackey signs. I kinda figured this. The Braves will use the pitch that he's the second best option on the market. Whether that's true is something else. Being able to trade his contract is also something else. Juan Pierre's name has been thrown into the mix, but I'd prefer dipping into a farm.
2. Also on Lowe. This is exactly why the Braves refuse to add no-trade clauses in contracts. Lowe would decline any trade out of Atlanta in a heartbeat right now. It's good to see him handle all of this like he is, and I wouldn't expect any different from him. But it's never a good sign when he says he knows what he's doing wrong but is unable to correct it. Never a good sign.
3. Marco Scutaro prefers the Red Sox and Dodgers. Go ahead, Boston. You know you wanna do it.
4. Sean Smith analyzes Ichiro's defense.
5. The Braves are having their name thrown into the ring for Takashi Saito. I didn't realize the Braves had interest in him in 2002.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Morning Buzz: 11/29
Sorry for the absence. A lot of turkey and a lot of laziness is my excuse. Go Falcons. We're still in this thing.
Also, don't forget our 30 Prospects in 30 Days begins Tuesday. We're counting down our top 30 Braves prospects with one a day.
1. Talking Chop winds down their top 25 prospect list with 1-5. Zeke Spruill appears a little high for me at #5 but I like the top four.
2. Josh Johnson will not be traded this offseason. "I'd be less surprised if Elijah showed up at my parents' house this Passover than if they trade him before the start of the season," Sosnick said. I love agents.
3. Evan Brunell writes on the implications of the Jays signing Alex Gonzalez. The Jays signing Gonzalez almost forces the Sox to either sign Marco Scutaro or settle for an Adam Everett-type. Signing Scutaro means a comp pick for the Jays. The signing of the player itself isn't big; Gonzalez is nothing more than a good defensive shortstop. But forcing the Sox into a corner like that makes it bigger.
4. Bud Selig will step down as commissioner after 2012.
5. Matthew Pouliot recaps the Rays/Twins deal in 2007 involving Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young. How's that workin for ya, Bill?
Also, don't forget our 30 Prospects in 30 Days begins Tuesday. We're counting down our top 30 Braves prospects with one a day.
1. Talking Chop winds down their top 25 prospect list with 1-5. Zeke Spruill appears a little high for me at #5 but I like the top four.
2. Josh Johnson will not be traded this offseason. "I'd be less surprised if Elijah showed up at my parents' house this Passover than if they trade him before the start of the season," Sosnick said. I love agents.
3. Evan Brunell writes on the implications of the Jays signing Alex Gonzalez. The Jays signing Gonzalez almost forces the Sox to either sign Marco Scutaro or settle for an Adam Everett-type. Signing Scutaro means a comp pick for the Jays. The signing of the player itself isn't big; Gonzalez is nothing more than a good defensive shortstop. But forcing the Sox into a corner like that makes it bigger.
4. Bud Selig will step down as commissioner after 2012.
5. Matthew Pouliot recaps the Rays/Twins deal in 2007 involving Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young. How's that workin for ya, Bill?
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Morning Buzz: 11/26
Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. I'm disappointed that Matthew Stafford is doubtful for today's game. I have yet to see him as a pro. But at least the Hawks/Magic game tonight should be good. Looking forward to that.
1. The White Sox signed Andruw Jones. It's a one-year deal worth $500,000, and he can earn up to $1 million. Just more depth for Chicago.
2. Billy Wagner will start receiving offers next week. I have to believe the Braves will present an offer.
3. Matt Klaassen writes a good piece comparing the defense of Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria. At first thought, I automatically assume Zimmerman is the better defender, but the stats and logic he presented makes it a pretty close argument.
4. What inspired Klaassen's article was Joe Posnanski's piece on future Hall of Famers. It's a good article about current players that he thinks might make the HOF. Pujols and Mauer are the only locks on this list.
1. The White Sox signed Andruw Jones. It's a one-year deal worth $500,000, and he can earn up to $1 million. Just more depth for Chicago.
2. Billy Wagner will start receiving offers next week. I have to believe the Braves will present an offer.
3. Matt Klaassen writes a good piece comparing the defense of Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria. At first thought, I automatically assume Zimmerman is the better defender, but the stats and logic he presented makes it a pretty close argument.
4. What inspired Klaassen's article was Joe Posnanski's piece on future Hall of Famers. It's a good article about current players that he thinks might make the HOF. Pujols and Mauer are the only locks on this list.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Adrian Beltre and Mark DeRosa
The way things are going, the third base spot for the Phillies is coming down to Adrian Beltre and Mark DeRosa. There are always other possibilities that can come up, such as Placido Polanco or just settling for Greg Dobbs. But the Phillies obviously want the best possible deal and it probably comes down to these two.
Neither was fully healthy last season. Beltre saw 477 plate appearances while DeRosa had 576. Beltre pretty much had a nightmare season all around, only posting eight home runs and 44 RBI with a .683 OPS and .114 ISO. It's always been said that getting him out of Safeco would do wonders, but it doesn't really matter when you walk 19 times, only record 119 hits, and your BABIP is .302. I do feel like the walk rate is a fluke; he's never had a BB% below five, yet it was 4.1% in 2009.
The BB/K rate has never been there, but he has been able to record solid ISO numbers and LD%. It feels like he has been around forever, but he turns 31 in April.
DeRosa had the highest production numbers of his career in 2009, but his contact rates were some of the lowest, possibly due to age. He set a career high in strikeouts (121) and K% (23.5%). The BB% also took a step back from the past couple years at 8.4%. All on-base and slugging rates were low for him. His BABIP was considerably lower than in years past at .286, but it doesn't excuse the poorer BB/K rates. It also doesn't excuse the drop in LD% from 22.4% to 16.6%. He hit far more fly balls and fewer line drives.
Beltre has age and potential on his side. You know he's bound to rebound; Bill James projects a .760 OPS and .170 ISO. And getting him out of Safeco and into the bandbox in Philadelphia would definitely help his power numbers. I fully believe the walk rates are a fluke and he will rebound to post numbers similar to 2006: .328/.465/.792, 25 HR, 89 RBI. Or if not that, at least similar to 2005, and that would also be an improvement. Either way, Beltre will be a valuable signing.
DeRosa does not have time on his side. He turns 35 in February. Bill James projects a slight increase in on-base rates but a dip in slugging rates, and I agree 100%. His BB/K rates should improve somewhat over this past season since his history indicates better rates than that, but the power is bound to decrease soon. Some of those home runs will turn to doubles and he will continue to hit fewer line drives.
On defense, there is no comparison, and I'm not saying that because of that memory of DeRosa's embarrassment in Colorado that one day in 2004 (shudder). When DeRosa sees full time at third base he isn't very good. He saw 556 innings at 3B for the Braves in 2004, posting a UZR of -6.8. For the Rangers in 2006, it was -2.5 in 342 innings. In 2009 between the Indians and Cardinals, it was -5.6 in 874 innings.
Beltre is simply a great defensive third baseman. He consistently has a UZR of over 10 (23.1 in 2004). The past two years was 12.7 and 14.3. Like I said, there is no comparison.
It all depends on whether Beltre's rebound season will best a declining season from DeRosa. Signing Beltre proves to be more of a risk but has better payoff, not only potentially for 2010 but for several seasons after. He can easily best DeRosa's power numbers and it's to the point where the BB/K rates may be similar as well. Not to mention Beltre's defense is far beyond DeRosa's. If the money is available, go after Beltre.
Neither was fully healthy last season. Beltre saw 477 plate appearances while DeRosa had 576. Beltre pretty much had a nightmare season all around, only posting eight home runs and 44 RBI with a .683 OPS and .114 ISO. It's always been said that getting him out of Safeco would do wonders, but it doesn't really matter when you walk 19 times, only record 119 hits, and your BABIP is .302. I do feel like the walk rate is a fluke; he's never had a BB% below five, yet it was 4.1% in 2009.
The BB/K rate has never been there, but he has been able to record solid ISO numbers and LD%. It feels like he has been around forever, but he turns 31 in April.
DeRosa had the highest production numbers of his career in 2009, but his contact rates were some of the lowest, possibly due to age. He set a career high in strikeouts (121) and K% (23.5%). The BB% also took a step back from the past couple years at 8.4%. All on-base and slugging rates were low for him. His BABIP was considerably lower than in years past at .286, but it doesn't excuse the poorer BB/K rates. It also doesn't excuse the drop in LD% from 22.4% to 16.6%. He hit far more fly balls and fewer line drives.
Beltre has age and potential on his side. You know he's bound to rebound; Bill James projects a .760 OPS and .170 ISO. And getting him out of Safeco and into the bandbox in Philadelphia would definitely help his power numbers. I fully believe the walk rates are a fluke and he will rebound to post numbers similar to 2006: .328/.465/.792, 25 HR, 89 RBI. Or if not that, at least similar to 2005, and that would also be an improvement. Either way, Beltre will be a valuable signing.
DeRosa does not have time on his side. He turns 35 in February. Bill James projects a slight increase in on-base rates but a dip in slugging rates, and I agree 100%. His BB/K rates should improve somewhat over this past season since his history indicates better rates than that, but the power is bound to decrease soon. Some of those home runs will turn to doubles and he will continue to hit fewer line drives.
On defense, there is no comparison, and I'm not saying that because of that memory of DeRosa's embarrassment in Colorado that one day in 2004 (shudder). When DeRosa sees full time at third base he isn't very good. He saw 556 innings at 3B for the Braves in 2004, posting a UZR of -6.8. For the Rangers in 2006, it was -2.5 in 342 innings. In 2009 between the Indians and Cardinals, it was -5.6 in 874 innings.
Beltre is simply a great defensive third baseman. He consistently has a UZR of over 10 (23.1 in 2004). The past two years was 12.7 and 14.3. Like I said, there is no comparison.
It all depends on whether Beltre's rebound season will best a declining season from DeRosa. Signing Beltre proves to be more of a risk but has better payoff, not only potentially for 2010 but for several seasons after. He can easily best DeRosa's power numbers and it's to the point where the BB/K rates may be similar as well. Not to mention Beltre's defense is far beyond DeRosa's. If the money is available, go after Beltre.
Morning Buzz: 11/25
1. Mark Bowman makes up his latest speculations. He does say that the Braves have no early interest in Miguel Cabrera or Jermaine Dye. He lists Billy Wagner, Fernando Rodney, Octavio Dotel, and Marlon Byrd as possibilities.
Perhaps the most entertaining line of the article: "If the Braves were able to grab him (Byrd) off the free-agent market, they would find themselves with more reason to explore the possibility of trading former top prospect Jordan Schafer."
Yikes, Bowman. Yikes.
2. Other than the announcement of Albert Pujols as MVP, the headliner for yesterday was Miguel Cabrera's name being placed on the block. This led to plenty of blog posts throughout the day. Fangraphs.com evaluates his value, stating that he isn't fully worth his contract. It's hard to argue against that since his contract is enormous. It might be a problem for the Tigers if they really are looking to deal him. Outside of the Yankees and Red Sox, there isn't a team capable of taking on his contract. The Braves were put out there as a possibility because they need a first baseman, but there's no way it happens unless they deal Lowe and the Tigers take on a huge chunk of the contract...enough to make it worthwhile.
3. Fangraphs analyzes Jermaine Dye moving to first base. There's really no way of knowing how he might respond to playing there, since he never has before. But that in itself may tell you.
4. Talks of a Joe Mauer extension by Christmas. Mauer himself doesn't seem to be in a hurry to do it. To me that sounds like he is certain he will remain in Minnesota regardless. If you're a Twins fan, obviously the best news you could hear is that the two sides are getting down to business and working out the extension. But the second best news is hearing Mauer say "it will take care of itself when it needs to."
5. You can tell David O'Brien isn't exactly giving 100% these days.
Perhaps the most entertaining line of the article: "If the Braves were able to grab him (Byrd) off the free-agent market, they would find themselves with more reason to explore the possibility of trading former top prospect Jordan Schafer."
Yikes, Bowman. Yikes.
2. Other than the announcement of Albert Pujols as MVP, the headliner for yesterday was Miguel Cabrera's name being placed on the block. This led to plenty of blog posts throughout the day. Fangraphs.com evaluates his value, stating that he isn't fully worth his contract. It's hard to argue against that since his contract is enormous. It might be a problem for the Tigers if they really are looking to deal him. Outside of the Yankees and Red Sox, there isn't a team capable of taking on his contract. The Braves were put out there as a possibility because they need a first baseman, but there's no way it happens unless they deal Lowe and the Tigers take on a huge chunk of the contract...enough to make it worthwhile.
3. Fangraphs analyzes Jermaine Dye moving to first base. There's really no way of knowing how he might respond to playing there, since he never has before. But that in itself may tell you.
4. Talks of a Joe Mauer extension by Christmas. Mauer himself doesn't seem to be in a hurry to do it. To me that sounds like he is certain he will remain in Minnesota regardless. If you're a Twins fan, obviously the best news you could hear is that the two sides are getting down to business and working out the extension. But the second best news is hearing Mauer say "it will take care of itself when it needs to."
5. You can tell David O'Brien isn't exactly giving 100% these days.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Continuing With the Stockpiling
The Braves got one back from the Royals, except the Braves went a different route and got somebody with a little bit of potential. They signed reliever Juan Abreu to a major league contract.
Abreu will be 25 in April. According to the AJC, he was the Royals' 25th best prospect coming into 2009. He struggled in the rookie leagues when he was first signed, but 2008 was when he finally turned into something. He struck out 104 in 76 innings for Class A Burlington, posting a 3.66 ERA, including four starts.
However, he has always battled control problems. That same season was his lowest BB9 at 5. He has averaged a BB9 of 5.7 in his career, though he has always maintained a K9 of 11.
Abreu started 2009 on a good note with a 1.69 ERA in 21 innings for A+, including 12 saves. He moved up to AA and hit a wall, posting a 5.75 ERA in 20 innings. He also walked 22.
He is said to have a fastball reaching mid to high 90's. If he can learn control he could be serviceable.
Abreu will be 25 in April. According to the AJC, he was the Royals' 25th best prospect coming into 2009. He struggled in the rookie leagues when he was first signed, but 2008 was when he finally turned into something. He struck out 104 in 76 innings for Class A Burlington, posting a 3.66 ERA, including four starts.
However, he has always battled control problems. That same season was his lowest BB9 at 5. He has averaged a BB9 of 5.7 in his career, though he has always maintained a K9 of 11.
Abreu started 2009 on a good note with a 1.69 ERA in 21 innings for A+, including 12 saves. He moved up to AA and hit a wall, posting a 5.75 ERA in 20 innings. He also walked 22.
He is said to have a fastball reaching mid to high 90's. If he can learn control he could be serviceable.
Pujols Also Runs Away With It
There really isn't that much to say about the guy.
Pujols won the rates triple crown (OBP/SLG/OPS). He finished second in doubles, first in homers, third in RBI, and third in average. He almost won the regular triple crown as well.
Comparing to his 2008 season, Pujols hit ten more home runs and 19 more RBI. He posted the most walks of his career at 115 (his second straight season of 100+, his only two seasons of 100+). He had an average year of 64 strikeouts. Despite having 590+ at bats in his first five seasons in the league, Pujols' total of 47 homers this year in 568 at bats is the second most of his career. In fact, his career high of 49 homers came with 535 at bats in 2006.
Pujols led the league in OBP, yet his .443 mark is 19 points lower than in 2008. This caused his OPS to be 14 points lower, though his SLG was a little higher. He was a little unlucky with the BA/BIP: .299, which is probably the reason for his lower BA and OBP. He was unlucky with batted balls, yet his BA/RISP was still .361.
There was no comparison between Pujols and the others, but that doesn't mean you can't compare the others. Hanley Ramirez finished second in the voting and for good reason. The only MVP candidates with a higher OBP than Ramirez were Pujols and Prince Fielder. His SLG was lower due to only 24 homers, though he did have 42 doubles, which tied for fifth.
He had a high BA/BIP at .379. Because of that, some might want to put Troy Tulowitzki ahead of Ramirez. Tulo's BA/BIP was .316. He slugged at a higher rate than Ramirez and walked more in fewer at bats, though his OBP was considerably lower due to Ramirez's luckier at bats. I could go either way with this debate.
The failure to look beyond the power is why Ryan Howard finished third. Voting him over Prince Fielder is idiocy.
My ballot:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Troy Tulowitzki
4. Prince Fielder
5. Chase Utley
Pujols won the rates triple crown (OBP/SLG/OPS). He finished second in doubles, first in homers, third in RBI, and third in average. He almost won the regular triple crown as well.
Comparing to his 2008 season, Pujols hit ten more home runs and 19 more RBI. He posted the most walks of his career at 115 (his second straight season of 100+, his only two seasons of 100+). He had an average year of 64 strikeouts. Despite having 590+ at bats in his first five seasons in the league, Pujols' total of 47 homers this year in 568 at bats is the second most of his career. In fact, his career high of 49 homers came with 535 at bats in 2006.
Pujols led the league in OBP, yet his .443 mark is 19 points lower than in 2008. This caused his OPS to be 14 points lower, though his SLG was a little higher. He was a little unlucky with the BA/BIP: .299, which is probably the reason for his lower BA and OBP. He was unlucky with batted balls, yet his BA/RISP was still .361.
There was no comparison between Pujols and the others, but that doesn't mean you can't compare the others. Hanley Ramirez finished second in the voting and for good reason. The only MVP candidates with a higher OBP than Ramirez were Pujols and Prince Fielder. His SLG was lower due to only 24 homers, though he did have 42 doubles, which tied for fifth.
He had a high BA/BIP at .379. Because of that, some might want to put Troy Tulowitzki ahead of Ramirez. Tulo's BA/BIP was .316. He slugged at a higher rate than Ramirez and walked more in fewer at bats, though his OBP was considerably lower due to Ramirez's luckier at bats. I could go either way with this debate.
The failure to look beyond the power is why Ryan Howard finished third. Voting him over Prince Fielder is idiocy.
My ballot:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Troy Tulowitzki
4. Prince Fielder
5. Chase Utley
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